a cyclone of cold, rain and snow is coming!


Fascinating Lake Misurina (BL) under heavy snow
Luca Lombroso Luca Lombroso 7 minutes

It’s great there waiting for the arrival of cold weather announced for several days, however, first we have to deal with the rain, which is ultimately a welcome and necessary return. And even in the heat, or at least with temperatures again too mild for January. So let’s begin a look at yesterday’s highs, among which 22°C stands out Pescara a more warmth since the end of March than since winter also in the north. Maximum at 15-17°C in the cities of the Po Valley, even 18°C in Forlì deserves much more media attention than the coming cold, which we will now cover in detail.

Synoptic situation

AND a depression is forming in the Mediterranean west central: according to the manual, the ground map is expected on Saturday, January 6 at 00, p at least around 995 hPa near Corsica and Sardinia. The cold front will be located in the Strait of Sardinia, while the warm front covers the north. To feed the system with cold polar sea air, meridian extension of the pressure high over the nearby Atlantic. Mild subtropical air will prevail in the north during this phase.

Change air mass, cooler than expected between January 7 and 8, with the low moving between the Adriatic and the Balkans and the strengthening of the anticyclonic high over Norway, 1035-1040 hPa.

A very disturbed weekend, details

On Saturday, January 6, the Northwest will quickly enter a rain shadow, with clear spells also large in Piedmont and parts of Lombardy. Extensive rainfall in Emilia Romagna, eastern Lombardy and the entire northeast. Also heavy snow in the Central Eastern Alps, above 1000-1300 m. Rain with snow only on the peaks in the northern Apennines.

At the center of widespread rainfall in central and northern Tuscany, frequent but more irregular rains in other areas and in Sardinia, but with storms and showers. Snow in the central Apennines above 1700-1800 m.

Thunderstorms in the south, especially between Sicily, Calabria and southern Puglia, more irregular rains in Campania and northern Puglia.

The temperatures are not low, it rains 6-8°C in the north, 12-14°C in the middle, and even 16-18°C in the south.

A lot of wind, with a cyclonic rotation, with an orphan in the Adriatic, in the west and southwest in the Tyrrhenian seas, the first signs of a mistral in Sardinia.

Sunday situation very similar to Saturday described above, with the news of a decrease in snowfall in the north: snow in the central-eastern Alps decreases at 600-800 m, at 800-1000 m in the northern Apennines, 1000-1200 m in the middle. Persistent rain in the north-east plain and partly in Tuscany, on alert since afternoon. On the contrary, increased rainfall in the south.

Changeable and cooler start of the week

Monday, January 8, partly cloudy in the north, not cold yet and frosts are rare. In the middle of more clouds, but also calm flashes, Irregular precipitation is expected in the north of Sardinia, Marche and occasional light snowfall in the Apennines central. In the south showers and thunderstorms in places, in Calabria in the interior areas above 800-1000 m snowfall.

Frost on Tuesday in the north, which is not surprising in January; snow in the Western Alps, otherwise variability and more wintry but not freezing air. Variability also in the central south, precipitation is sporadic, consult the maps to identify the most affected areas.

Wednesday, January 10 uncertainty from models, from the latest it looks like a day similar to tuesday, increasing clouds from the afternoon. Colder, in the north minimums up to -2,-4°C, maximums between +3 and +5°C, in the middle of the night around +1,+4°C and maximums of 8-10°C, only around 5-6° C in Tuscany. In the south, the minimum is +4, +6°C, the maximum is around +12, +14°C.

Temperature anomaly predicted by ECMWF Wednesday 10 January 2024: as can be seen, we will have cold anomalies that are not particularly pronounced or even widespread, thanks to local influences and dry air, some areas will even have above average temperatures.

Cool second half of the week, disturbed in the south

Framing days in broader terms from thursday to saturday we see it getting colder in the north, stay in line with what is expected in January. At the moment there were significant frosts in the morning, with -4, -6°C, nothing record-breaking and with maximums between +3 and +5°C.

A new Mediterranean cyclone in the central south will probably bring instead Mroccasional rain showers and snowfall in the central-southern Apennines, at an estimated altitude of 400-600 m.

Will the snow finally arrive on the plains?

Even after the sensational statements of some media, there is expectation about the arrival of snow on the plains in the north and even in the central cities.

Sorry to disappoint, but for a period of 6-8 days, the plains do not appear to be suitable conditions for new snowfall, both on and after the days mentioned above; let’s just leave hope in the uncertainty of a sporadic appearance of timid snowflakes in the northeast, but unlikely.

Even more, there doesn’t appear to be any snow conditions in rome and naples at the moment.

Something is moving in the second half of January, both cold and interesting snow situations, but it’s too early to say too much, watch updates for details.


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