Stock markets live today | Ftse Mib remains up, De Guindos (ECB): data confirms recession fears. Spread falls to 162 – MilanoFinanza News

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European stock exchanges open – January 10, 2024


All European stock markets remain up (FTSE MIB +0.50% at 30,560 points thanks to Azimut, Mps, Ferrari, Fineco, Iveco and Stellantis), thanks to Wall Street futures moving positive (+ 0, 04% on the Dow Jones and +0.16% on the S&P500). The BTP/Bund spread fell to 162.7 basis points after ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos said the slowdown in euro zone inflation was likely to stop at the start of the year and that risks to economic growth were oriented towards more negative results and a possible recession.

In fact, “weak indicators signal a contraction of the economy even in December, confirming the possibility of a technical recession in the second half of 2023 and a weak outlook in the short term,” de Guindos said in Madrid. “Incoming data suggests that the future remains uncertain and the outlook is tilting downward,” he added.

Retail sales in Italy rose in November

The euro rose 0.16% to $1.094 after retail sales in Italy posted cyclical growth of 0.4% in value and 0.2% in volume in November. In the September to November 2023 quarter, in economic terms, retail sales fell both in value (-0.1%) and volume (-0.8%).

09.05 Ftse Mib climbs cautiously with Finec. Increasing returns are expected in the Bot auction

European stock markets are mixed at the start of the session. Frankfurt is up 0.10%, Paris is down 0.05% and London is down 0.27%, while Milan is up 0.19% at 30,466 points. What is worrying, according to Integrae Sim’s Fabrizio Barini, is the volatility of the 10-year T-bond (4% yield), which remains very high, while equity volatility is the lowest. “This means that the main source of uncertainty for operators is not the direction of profits, but the future of interest rates. The bets on a possible reduction in the cost of money in March are actually decreasing: from 71% at the end of 2023, we have gone to the current 50%, the expert explains.

Rate cut forecasts

According to Goldman Sachs, the ECB will cut rates by 150 basis points over the course of the year to reach 2.25% by the end of 2025. The first step should occur in April, as there will not be enough data in March to declare that disinflation has occurred. However, the first cut is unlikely to come in July unless there is very aggressive wage dynamics. “The investment bank is optimistic about Italy, that is, thanks to the dynamics of the monetary policy, the new fiscal compact that will be introduced gradually, thus avoiding the default procedure, the PEPP will continue during the first half of 2024,” reiterates Barini and reminds , that on the equity front, the US reporting season begins on Friday with banks and on the eve of this year’s appointment there are normal profit-takings.

French industrial production beat expectations in November

The euro fell 0.03% to $1.0927. In November 2023, French industrial production rebounded by 0.5% compared to -0.3% in the previous month. The figures were higher than expected. In the three months from September to November, production increased by 0.8%.

BTP returns 3.8%, rising returns expected in Bot auction

The yield on the 10-year BTP fell to 3.829% after the Ministry of Finance placed two tranches of government bonds through an international group of banks on January 9, consisting of a new seven-year BTP maturing in February 2031 and a reopening of the 30-year BTP for 5 billion euros, which expires on 1. October 2053. The operation was closed in a few hours: BTP raised 10 billion by 2031 with demand exceeding 73 billion at a price equivalent to 99,880 for a gross annual yield of 3.548%. However, since 2053, BTP has achieved a total of more than €91 billion in orders at a price of 100,560 with a gross yield of 4.515%. In total, the Ministry of Finance collected demand for more than 164 billion against 15 billion of debt placed on the market.

“A very positive result that shows confidence in the sustainability of public debt in the medium term after a series of very important events, namely the new fiscal pact and the stability of the views of the main rating agencies”, notes Barini. “Just under 400 billion will need to be refinanced in 2024, with costs expected to be lower than the previous year, which peaked at 3.5%, double that of 2022. Based on these figures, every 100 basis points points less yield, the state budget will save 4 billion in interest per year for 5 years, which is the average duration of our debt.” Today, January 10, the Ministry of Finance will place 8 billion euros of annual BOTs. Yesterday evening, January 9, the January 2025 bot rate on the MTS gray market was quoted at around 3.5%, compared to the mid-December placement of 3.258%. Germany is also active in the primary sector, offering 5 billion jackets in February 2034. A Spanish syndicate is also expected on the new 10-year government bond.

In Milan, Fineco excels, Campari is suspended. Unicredit and STM slightly up, Maire better

New paper supply was also plentiful on the corporate front with placements in Bper Banca AT1 (-0.03% to €3.152 at Piazza Affari) and Unicredit Tier2 (+0.39% to €25.655). While the chipmaker STMicroelectronics, which intends to create a new structure for its organization, with two new product groups that focus on areas such as sensors and digital products, is changing hands at 40.81 euros (+0.29% ). However, Barclays cut its target price on the shares to €52.

The best performer is FinecoBank, up 1.77% to 13.79 euros, after a net collection of 1.226 billion euros in December. The acceleration in the number of new customers remained at very high levels and reached a new record of over 119 thousand since the beginning of the year. For the full year 2023, net collections reached 8.8 billion, with the managed component 2.7 billion and the managed component 8.3 billion.

Instead, no bank loan, a better mix of bonds and shares for Campari (initially suspended, now back in business and down 5.86% to 9.34 euros), which has put a damper on ways to finance the 1.22 billion acquisition euros of French cognac Courvoisier. On 9 January, when the stock market was closed, the group announced that it wanted to use the market to pay the bill through a double operation: a capital increase of 650 million euros together with a new issue of senior and non-senior convertible debt. securities underwritten for another half billion, both through a private placement formula reserved for institutional investors.

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Additionally, Newcleo, a clean and safe nuclear technology company developing innovative fourth-generation small modular reactors and producing Mox fuel, has signed an agreement with NextChem and Tecnimont, subsidiaries of Maire (+0.82% to €4.89), to use Newcleo reactors to decarbonize the chemical industry, including hydrogen production. Underpinning NextChem Tech’s new “e-Factory for Carbon Neutral Chemistry” model, the agreement allows for the exclusive development of a study on the sustainable production of hydrogen and zero-emission chemical products. Finally, Aquafil (+0.46% to 3.29 euros) successfully concluded the process with various financial institutions to obtain exemptions in relation to the agreements valid for the financial parameters of the financial year 2023.

09.05 Europe’s expectations are falling. You earn from bitcoins and gold

European stock markets expect a decline at the start of the session (-0.29% for Eurostoxx50 futures), in line with Asian and negative futures on Wall Street (-0.13% for the Dow Jones and -0.12% for the S&P500 ). The euro is weak against the dollar at 1.092 (-0.02%) pending macro data and intervention by some central bankers.

Focus on macro data and interventions by central bankers

At 8:45 a.m. November industrial production in France (previous: -0.3% month-on-month), at 10:00 a.m. November retail sales in Italy (previous: +0.3% month-on-month), at 1:00 p.m. weekly US index mortgage demand (previous: -9.4%) and at 16:30 weekly oil inventories (previous: -4.4 million). On the central bank front, European Central Bank Vice President Luis de Guindos is expected to speak at 9:20 a.m. and Executive Committee member Isabel Schnabel is expected to speak at 3:00 p.m., while a speech by European Central Bank President Federal Reserve Bank is expected at 9:15 p.m. in New York, John Williams .

Fed, another rate hike raises the decidedly low probability

“The latest minutes from the Fed’s December meeting gave investors a glimpse into the discussions and expectations of FOMC members. The “fly-on-the-wall” perspective did not change the overall scenario, as the minutes confirmed that the Fed largely believes that the reference rate has reached its peak”, points out Antonio Tognoli of Cfo Sim. “However, in reality, it was also recognized that further increases may be necessary if inflation experienced a surprise rise. However, at this stage we believe that further increases are very unlikely.”

You earn from bitcoins and gold

Instead, the price of bitcoin lost 1.72% to $45,921 after experiencing a sharp rise on January 9 following a fake post on the official Securities and Exchange Commission (Sec) account that said regulators had approved the first U.S. spot exchange for bitcoins. On the commodities front, oil prices remain on the uptrend, with WTI up 0.57% to $72.65 a barrel and Brent up 0.48% to $77.96 a barrel. Profit, on the contrary, from gold (-0.08% to $2,031 per ounce).

Stm, Campari, Maire and Aquafil are the ones to watch in Milan

On the Milan list, pay attention to chip maker STMicroelectronics, which intends to create a new structure for its organization with two new product groups that focus on areas such as sensors and digital products. However, Barclays cut its target price on the shares to €52.

Instead, no bank loan, a better mix of bonds and shares for Campari, which changed the way it financed its €1.22 billion acquisition of French cognac Courvoisier. On 9 January, when the stock market was closed, the group announced that it wanted to use the market to pay the bill through a double operation: a capital increase of 650 million euros together with a new issue of senior and non-senior convertible debt. securities underwritten for another half billion, both through a private placement formula reserved for institutional investors.

In addition, Newcleo, a clean and safe nuclear technology company developing innovative fourth-generation small modular reactors and producing Mox fuel, has signed an agreement with Maire subsidiaries NextChem and Tecnimont to use Newcleo reactors to decarbonize the chemical. industry, including hydrogen production. Underpinning NextChem Tech’s new “e-Factory for Carbon Neutral Chemistry” model, the agreement allows for the exclusive development of a study on the sustainable production of hydrogen and zero-emission chemical products. Finally, Aquafil has successfully concluded a process with various financial institutions to obtain exemptions in relation to the arrangements applicable to the financial parameters of the financial year 2023. (reproduction reserved)

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