Watch out for very strong winds expected in the south, real thunderstorms with gusts over 100km/h and thunderstorms


These strong westerly winds, which will be activated between the Strait of Sardinia, the Strait of Sicily and the lower western Tyrrhenian Sea, blowing at speeds of up to 100 km/h, will also increase significant wave movement.

Daniel Ingemi Daniel Ingemi 8 minutes

Over the next few hours, entry into the trough from the North Atlantic, fed along the westernmost edge by the river’s descent “drive lane” of “polar jet” (values ​​over 200 km/h), which will quickly spread to northern Algeria and Tunisia, will cause an intense wave of bad weather, especially along the Tyrrhenian sectors.

Along the ascending axis of this high-altitude cyclonic swell, a mesoscale low forms over land over the Gulf of Lion, poised to rapidly approach the coasts of Corsica and Sardinia. During tomorrow morning, Saturday 6 January 2024, this low will push towards the middle and lower Tyrrhenian Sea.

It comes with support an intense core of positive isentropic vorticity, present on the ascending branch of the same sac, deepens quickly until the values ​​of 991 hPa are reached, it also causes a decrease in barometric pressure in the seas around Sardinia and Sicily.

A collapse in barometric pressure is expected in the south

A strong decrease in barometric pressure in a pressure circulation that will approach the west coast of Sicily from the Strait of Sardinia during the night of tomorrow to Sunday will cause a significant thickening “horizontal baric gradient”between Sardinia, the northern coast of Tunisia and Sicily, which favors the activation of very strong winds from the southwest and west, far beyond the threshold of attention, which extends from the Sardinian Sea and the English Channel to the upper Strait of Sicily and the lower western Tyrrhenian Sea, with storms of 8-9 Beaufort and possible gusts up to 10 Beaufort, especially between Pantelleria and Lampedusa.

But offshore, along the southernmost quadrant of the mesoscale low developing towards the lower Tyrrhenian Sea, authentic westerly gales could be activated, peaking over 90-100 km/h. In this case, the storms in action between the Sardinia Strait and the lower western Tyrrhenian Sea will be further enhanced by the so-called “isalobaric” component, which will make the wind storms even stronger, due to the sudden drop in barometric pressure.

This type of wind represents the vector component of the wind associated with “baric gradient” caused by the speed of movement of the deep cyclonic region that created it.

Strong wind, thunderstorms.
Very strong winds are expected in the next 24 hours in the seas surrounding Sardinia and Sicily. The Meteored reference model warns of possible gusts of 100 km/h.

It is formed by a rapid drop in pressure over a relatively large geographic area following the close passage of a deep cyclogenesis that moves at a relatively high speed, usually from west to east or in a southwest/northeast direction.

Very strong wind in Sicily tomorrow afternoon

Tomorrow afternoon, with the movement of a deep low in the lower Tyrrhenian Sea, strong southwest and westerly winds will begin to lash the entire west and south coast of Sicily, spreading to the central Ionian Sea, even with very strong gusts, especially between Pantelleria and Pelagia, where they can be overcome 90-100 km/h.

But strong winds are expected in Sicily, especially between Agrigento, Ragusa and Syracuse, and in Sardinia, where strong mistral gusts will break out. However, while the Salento coast will pick up strong winds from the S-SE tomorrow afternoon, which may peak over 60 km/h between Lecce and Brindisi.

From the following evening, with the development of the mesoscale low towards the northeast, a strong current from the west will also develop over the lower Tyrrhenian Sea, between the northern coast of Sicily and Tyrrhenian Calabria, directly affecting Ustica and the Aeolian Islands. with peaks capable of exceeding i 70-80 km/h, but locally even more than 90 km/h in the most exposed places (on headlands, exposed beaches).

Intense westerly ventilation will slowly weaken first in the evening Sunday, January 7, it still breathes above the threshold of attention between the Straits of Sardinia, the Straits of Sicily, and the lower Tyrrhenian Sea.

Impressive waves expected, over 5 meters

These strong westerly winds, which will be activated between the Sardinian Strait, the Sicilian Strait and the lower western Tyrrhenian Sea, will also increase significant wave motion.

The presence of a “take out” (a sea area through which the wind blows) very large, extending from the stretch of sea off the Algerian coast to the Sardinian Strait and the southern Tyrrhenian Sea, will support the development of very consistent wave motion in all the southernmost basins and in the seas surrounding southern Sardinia and Sicily.

Strong wind, bad weather.
Intense westerly ventilation will slowly weaken until the evening of Sunday 7th January at the earliest and is still blowing over the warning threshold between the Sardinia Strait, Sicily and the lower Tyrrhenian Sea.

In particular the Sardinia Channel, the Strait of Sicily and the southern Tyrrhenian Sea which are directly exposed to storms from the W-SW and the West starting tomorrow evening they will become a very rough coastal sea with significant waves (wave average) of the “living sea” reaching a height of 4-5 meters in the stretch of sea that separates the southern coast of Sardinia from the coast of western Sicily..

Indeed, during the night between January 6 and 7Strait of Sicily it could even reach a sea state of strength 7 on the Douglas scale, i.e. large, with an average significant wave close to 6 meters.

The waves will cause significant storm surges on the coast of western Sicily and the Aegadian Islands in the Trapani area, where swells above 4-5 meters are expected. But storms, for waves from the west to more than 4-5 meters, they are also expected on the southern coast of Sicily, especially in the section between Mazara and the Licata coast, with probable erosion phenomena on the most exposed sections of the coast.

Areas exposed to storm surges

During night, from tomorrow until Sunday the 7th these waves generated by strong westerly winds operating off the Algerian and Tunisian coasts will spread throughout the southern Tyrrhenian Sea, significant waves reaching values ​​of 4-5 metersbetween Ustica and the Aeolian Archipelago, which will cause strong storms on the west coast of these islands.

Some of them, after passing through the entire southern Tyrrhenian Sea in the form of large long waves, will break with great force along the coast of Lower Tyrrhenian Calabria on Thursday, causing intense storm waves, especially between Lamezzo and Reggio.

Wave movement will threaten sea links with smaller islands, which are likely to suffer disruptions. Unfortunately, damage is also expected in coastal areas, which are particularly sensitive to the phenomenon of coastal erosion.


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